The two-week circus is finally coming to an abrupt end. After today, we can all rid ourselves of the grief of having to watch another watered-down segment of SportsCenter: On the Road featuring Jay Crawford giggling uncontrollably while talking to any person that has the slightest affiliation to the state of Ohio.
We can rid ourselves of the awkward interviews with current and ex-players on First Take where Skip Bayless somehow flips each and every segment into something Dallas Cowboys related while Stephen A. Smith stares daggers at him.
We can rid ourselves of EVERYONE and their grandmother having an opinion on deflated balls and their correlation to winning conference championship games. Due to the narrative that ESPN and other media conglomerates have painted, the New England Patriots are in a lose-lose situation this weekend.
Win the game, and they will be labeled as “cheaters” and are only able to win with unfair advantages. Lose the game, and they will be told that they didn’t win because they weren’t able to cheat. The whole situation really is deflating (ha!) the build up of Super Bowl week and taking away from the x’s and o’s of the game.
God damn you and your tears Mark Brunell.
Notice how nearly each and every analyst that has spoken out about the Patriots has fell victim to the Patriots at some point or another during the playoffs.
Brunell: Lost to New England in the 1997 AFC Championship and was a member of the New York Jets during Rex Ryan’s tenure.
Jerome Bettis: Lost to New England in the 2002 AFC Championship game while being heavy favorites AND Tom Brady going down with an injury during the game.
Brian Dawkins: Lost to New England in the 2005 Super Bowl in perhaps one of the least memorable games in recent memory. Could you tell me what the final score of that game was? How about who scored touchdowns? Stop lying.
Marshall Faulk/Kurt Warner: Lost to New England in the 2002 Super Bowl. Love you Kurt, but come on man.
Troy Aikman: Is currently tied with Brady for number of Super Bowl rings with three. Why would he would he want Tom to win a fourth and officially pass him on the all-time quarterback hierarchy (although I personally think he passed him up a long time ago).
I mean, the list goes on and on.
Some Patriots ball boy named Adam will ultimately be the one to take the fall for the whole operation, sparing the great legacies of Brady and Bill Belichick and forever engraving himself into Boston sports lore. Adam will never have to buy himself another beer within the New England area for the rest of his life. Robert Kraft will make sure he is handsomely taken care of, and don’t be surprised if Gisele finds a friend or two for him to “spend time with.”
There are more important matters to tend to.
For instance, Katy Perry is singing at halftime this year. The chatter all week has been surrounding the crotch grabbing antics of Marshawn Lynch, but I think the true focus should be on the crotch of Ms. Perry. Is setting the over/under for number of crouch grabs at 1.5 fair?
(Thinking…)
That is probably a bit high. But as a dude in my early 20s, I can dream.
The thing that nobody is talking about is the prospect of Perry bringing a sidekick or two on stage to embellish in a group crotch grab of sorts. The prime suspect for this kind of show begins and ends with Miley Cyrus. All of this talk of grabbing crotches must have her mouth salivating (or even her tongue sticking out). All I’m saying is, don’t rule it out.
Now that we have gotten all of that out of the way, it is time to focus on one the greatest Super Bowl match ups of all time. This does not mean that we are about to witness the closest Super Bowl ever played, but coming into the game, the difference between these two teams is one percentage point according to Aaron Schatz of footballoutsiders.com, who was a guest on Bill Simmons’ BS Report this week.
One percentage point!
The difference between these two teams is minuscule, and it has really thrown Vegas for a loop. The line initially has the Seahawks favored by 1.5 points before tilting over to where it currently stands at Patriots (-1). It would not be a surprise if this game ended at a pick em’ due to the conflicting strengths of each team.
For example…
Patriots Offense VS. Seahawks Defense
We are all aware of Seattle’s “Legion of Boom” secondary. As a Arizona Cardinals fan, I have not so fond memories of their work.
A main reason why they are so tough to go against is that they immediately force the offense to get out of their comfort zone. Richard Sherman notoriously will line up on the left side of Seattle’s patented Cover 3 defense (The two corners play a deep zone with one single-high safety — Earl Thomas — and another safety — Kam Chancellor — patrolling the intermediate routes with the linebackers.) daring quarterbacks and receivers to try throwing at him. Most teams will choose to neglect Sherman’s side all together by putting their third or even sometimes fourth receivers out there as a decoy and taking their chances with their best guy against right-side corner Byron Maxwell.
Green Bay continually would do this by lining up Jordy Nelson on the left side against Maxwell and sticking Davante Adams (who I actually like a lot, but he is a rookie) to deal with Sherman. In this instance, Seattle has already won the mental side of things. The entire right side of the field has essentially been taken away, giving Green Bay half the room to operate.
Executing great offense — whether in football, basketball, hockey or soccer — is all about creating open space to operate. The reason why Oregon’s offense has been so explosive is because they use gimmicks and spatial tactics to spread out the defense and force them to contend with operating is gigantic areas of space.
Actually, wait a second…
(They may just be giving their opponents a ton of weed before the game.)
Usually whenever a team plays against Seattle, they tend to compromise their ability to space out the football field. This is why teams struggle to contend with the Seahawks’ pass defense. Another reason quite simply, is because Sherman, Maxwell, Chancellor and Thomas are all really freaking good at what they do.
My guess for how New England is going to attack Seattle is by (a) trying to establish the run at all costs by pounding Legarrette Blount into the teeth of the Seahawks’ fast, but slim front seven, (b) try and attack the “Legion of Boom” with a couple of deep passes and (c) bust out a trick play or seven to sustain offensive momentum.
I believe the key to the Patriots winning this game will be connecting on at least two passing plays over 25 yards. New England has struggled on these types of throws this season as Brady time and time again is a yard or two off on his deep throws. He isn’t exactly throwing up ducks like Peyton Manning, but they aren’t the accurate strikes they once were.
Seattle thrives on going against this type of offense. In last year’s Super Bowl against Denver, they were practically begging Manning to throw over the top of them by loading up in the intermediate part of the field. They knew that Denver’s offense was predicated on a lot of timing and short passes that relied on yards after the catch. Seattle’s game plan was to beat the hell out of any receivers running drag routes over the middle and gang tackle any short passes to create minimal gains. Pressuring Manning to no end helped matters as well.
New England, to a lesser degree, has a similar passing attack. They will mostly rely on quick-hitting, short routes with their array of elusive white receivers and the occasional seam route to Gronk for a big chunk of yardage. It is very rare that you will see Brady uncork a deep ball nowadays. He should dust off the old cannon if he wants to come out victorious.
Watch for something such as of Gronk lining up on the right side of the line alongside Edelman with Brandon LaFell lining up on the left against Maxwell. Gronk will run up the seam and gobble up two, maybe three defenders (including the single-high safety, Thomas). Brady will use his eyes to force Thomas to shift towards the lumbering Gronk before he shifts his attention over to LaFell, who will be running a streak up the left sideline with only Maxwell to contend with.
The Super Bowl may be won or lost on a play very much like this. You heard it here first, even after the first 128 Super Bowl Previews you have read.
Seahawks Offense VS. Patriots Defense
This side of the ball will likely have less chess playing and is more about who can dominate who physically.
The name of the game for slowing down Seattle’s offense slowing down the Beast Mode experience of Marshawn Lynch. Someone take his Skittles!
Seattle has the NFL’s number one rushing attack in large part because they have two explosive running threats on the field at all times. Russell Wilson runs the read-option like a wizard, and any small hiccup a defense makes could result in a 50-yard gain with the snap of a finger.
To combat the read-option, New England will have to make a choice. They can either sell out on Lynch and leave the outside open for Wilson (probably a bad risk to take) or they can have an outside linebacker/lineman have outside contain on Wilson at all times, forcing him to hand the ball over to Lynch towards the inside.
By using simple math, the easy answer would be to let Lynch barrel into the inside of the line rather than allow Wilson to get out on the perimeter of the defense where he may only have one or two men to beat before he’s off to the races. However, Lynch is not like most running backs. He will routinely gain chunks of yardage regardless of the number of people that are in position to tackle him. This is why he is one of the best.
The answer for stopping the read-option may be to sell out completely on Lynch (including that outside linebacker/lineman that I mentioned) and have one of the inside linebackers with athletic ability (Jamie Collins perhaps) swing around and contend with Wilson on the perimeter. For all of Wilson’s craftiness as a runner, at the end of the day he does not want to get hit, so if a defender is in position to hit him, he will slide.
Either way, stopping the run will be more physical than mental. The interior of the Patriots defense will have to do their best to match the will of Lynch.
Through the air, Seattle’s attack is mostly pedestrian. They run a lot elementary route trees that create quick openings. Where they become lethal is off of the play-action game or whenever Wilson is improvising outside of the pocket. A defense can do everything correctly for six seconds, but on the seventh second Wilson will escape the rush and find an open receiver for a big gain.
I wonder if the Patriots will elect to play more zone because of this. Although they are a man-based defense, playing man against an elusive quarterback is dangerous because it is basically impossible to play man coverage on a receiver for more than five consecutive seconds in today’s NFL. Some receiver is bound to break away from coverage and be on his way.
Another thing to look out for is whether or not New England will blitz Wilson to get the ball out of his hands quickly. The Cardinals got burned a few times against Wilson this season when they blitzed him with a lot of room in front of him (Remember that 80-yard touchdown to tight end Luke Willson? Yeah, me too.) but they have had success when blitzing him within the red zone.
I’m fascinated to see how Belichick decides to defend Wilson. If I had to guess, it will be pretty conservative for the most part. The outside pass rushers will use outside contain on Wilson to keep him in the pocket, some zone coverage will be used during third-and-long, a linebacker will spy him in all passing and read-option situations and they will bring a heavy blitz during third downs that take place in the red zone.
For the most part, Lynch will be the key to the Seahawks offense and I think everyone knows it.
Prediction
I had a rough time with this one. Last year I was much more definitive with my pick.
This year, I find myself picking more with my heart than my head. I want to be able to tell my kids and my kid’s kids that I was able to watch the greatest quarterback to ever play in the NFL. And I think if Brady is able to pull this game out after all that has happened this week against this ridiculous Seattle defense, that he will unquestionably be the greatest quarterback of all-time.
New England 20 Seattle 17
Things to look out of on Super Bowl Sunday:
1. 1058673 mentions of Deflate-Gate and its impact on Brady and Belichick’s LEGACY.
2. Mark Brunell having his own segment on a pregame show before remarkably getting even more emotional the first time prompting Twitter to break and a million YouTube videos of him crying set to the “Let It Go” song from the movie Frozen.
3. Mark Brunell is invited to sing the national anthem with Idina Menzel (the lady who blessed us all with the song “Let It Go”) in effort to help him let all of this go.
4. The .00005% chance that this could be the last time we get to see Brady and Belichick play together.
5. Multiple middle-aged white guys awkwardly proclaiming Richard Sherman and Marshawn Lynch to be “intelligent and wise” in an effort to not be a racist.
6. Don’t sit next to the person at your Super Bowl party that watches football only once a year. Why did they throw a flag on that play? What does holding mean? Wait, was that an interception? That Tom Brady is cuuuuuuuuuute. Save yourself, at all costs.
7. The 5 % chance that Katy Perry comes out on stage wearing nothing but a cupcake bra.
8. Take a moment and appreciate the broadcasting excellence of Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth. Who knows how much longer Michaels will be be doing this.
9. Thank your lucky stars that we don’t have to listen to Joe Buck call another Super Bowl.
10. Don’t be the asshole that shushes everyone at your party because you want to watch the commercials. YouTube was invented for this purpose. I promise that you will be able to watch your precious commercials at your own leisure. I PROMISE.
11. Lastly, if you are at a party with a Patriots fan friend, record their drunken tangents if the game ends up being close in the final few minutes. You could produce some YouTube gold.
Have a great Super Bowl weekend everybody, from my deranged football mind to yours.
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