Hello everyone, please allow Gronk and I to welcome you back to NFL football Sunday. Glad you could be here.
Per usual, my picks will be in all caps.
DENVER (-4.5) at Cleveland
God bless you Peyton Manning, but you are throwing the ball about as well as I do right now. And I am not known to throw a perfect spiral. Denver is winning primarily because of the heroics of their defense, as evidenced by their 32nd ranking in offensive DVOA according to footballoutsiders.com.
Yeesh.
However, Josh McCown is due to come back down to Earth after three consecutive 300 yard performances — including a 457 yard outburst against the Ravens last week that resulted in 38 (!) fantasy points in my league — given that their offense consists primarily of check downs that require a ton of YAC (yards after catch). Also, last time I checked, Gary Barnidge isn’t good.
Something’s gotta give.
CINCY (-3) at Buffalo
There aren’t many times in your life when you get to bet against E.J. Manuel while only laying three points.
Also, Red Rifle forever.
KANSAS CITY (+4) at Minnesota
Purely a hunch here, but I am not giving up on the Chiefs dammit. Perhaps the loss of Charles will compel Andy Reid and Alex Smith to air the ball out a bit more. You know, considering they have weapons like Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce, whom looks like Gronk and wears hoop earrings. I would throw that man the ball at least ten times a game if I were them.
I know, I know. The Vikings are coming off of a bye. I am already accepting that this pick is going to be incorrect.
Houston at JACKSONVILLE (-2)
Houston may be the leader in the clubhouse in the annual “Team I hate watching the most” standings. They are awful. Nothing has encompassed their season more than that half court heave to beat the shot clock interception that Brian Hoyer threw last week to conclude the epic Thursday Night Football battle against a violently ill and elderly Matt Hasselbeck.
Jacksonville — despite their general “Jags Stink” mantra — is actually quite enjoyable to watch. Blake Bortles will do Blake Bortles things occasionally. Allen Robinson shows flashes of brilliance with Allen Hurns not far behind. At least the Jags are young and bad. The Texans are just bad.
CHICAGO (+3.5) at Detroit
The Lions shouldn’t be giving any team points.
Matty Stafford in entering full Jay Cutler mode where any ball thrown has a 75% chance of being intercepted and Jim Caldwell is leading the league in long gazes into nothingness by a head coach. Meanwhile, Jay Cutler is showing signs of exiting Jay Cutler mode.
What a shit show of a matchup.
BEARS VS LIONS, FEEL THE FEVER!!!!
WASHINGTON (+7) at New York Jets
Washington’s strong showing against the Falcons might have to be a bit discounted due to the poor showing Atlanta had on Thursday night, but I still believe they are one of the more underrated teams in the league.
Their defense is sneaky good, with a strong front seven and a solid secondary lead by Bashaud Breeland and co. The only problem for Washington really has been … that guy who is under center.
Look, Kirk Cousins isn’t good and we all shouldn’t pretend that it’s fair that he is the starting QB right now over some guy with really cool initials as a nickname. There has clearly been a vendetta between Griffin and Gruden from the outset, so Gruden has to stick to his guns and live and die with good ol’ Captain Kirk.
The sad thing is that Gruden is a savvy play caller, capable of spearheading a top level offense. Maybe he’s better off as a coordinator.
I still think the Jets win this game, but Fitzpatrick is due for some picks, which will be enough to keep things close.
ZONA (-4.5) at Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh has always had this way of playing poorly against teams that they should handle fairly easily (such as Baltimore), but then playing out of their minds against quality opponents when needed. That is my fear with this pick. Vick alludes some of Zona’s pressures and finds open receivers via broken plays a la Russell Wilson.
On the other hand … The Cards are rolling and Mike Vick hasn’t given me any reason to feel confident in Pittsburgh if they are asked to put up 30 points.
MIAMI (+2) at Tennessee
Classic nobody believes in us game for the Dolphins. It only makes sense that they will come out rejuvenated fresh off of a bye and after ridding themselves of the Joe Philbin stink.
Quite simply, Miami has a lot more talent than the Titans on both side of the ball. They are also playing for their season, given that a win would bring them up to a respectable 2-3 with a date with the aforementioned (shitty) Houston Texans up ahead. Things could interesting quickly in Miami.
(I promise this is the last time I will boast about the Dolphins if they lose this game.)
Carolina at SEATTLE (-7)
Seven points seems like a lot for a struggling Seahawks team going against the undefeated Panthers.
*Checks who the Panthers have beaten so far*
Jaguars … Okay, not bad. I guess.
Texans … I’ve already gone through all of my material towards the Texans.
Saints … Ehhhhhhhhh.
Bucs … Woooooooof.
(Sarcastic claps)
Congratulations, Carolina. I sense a big slice of humble pie to be served your way, courtesy of a pissed off Legion of Boom.
San Diego at GREEN BAY (-10.5)
This has stay away written all over it because Phil Rivers is petrifying to both gamble on and against. He is just as capable to throw three lollypops into the boxed out body of Antonio Gates as he is to throw five interceptions to a Packers D that is running on all cylinders right now.
The Pack haven’t had one of those games yet where they just beat the shit out of somebody (unless you are counting Kansas City). This seems like a fitting time for one of those games as they head into the bye.
Baltimore at SAN FRAN (+2)
*Shrugs*
Struggling to find a rationale for either one of these teams …
Wait, I got it!
The Ravens just gave up a 38 point fantasy day to JOSH MCCOWN and now they are being favored on the road against a potentially frisky 49ers team when Colin Kaepernick doesn’t give in to his happy feet?
Something is fishy, but I’ll close my eyes and take the points.
NEW ENGLAND (-9.5) at Indy
This line could have been (-24) and I would have taken New England. Even if I would have lost I would have been fine with my decision. I hope the Pats set the scoring record tomorrow night. Let’s break 100, Touchdown Tom.
New York at PHILLY (-4.5)
Strictly a contrarian play here. Odell is hampered with a hammy issue that I will assume make him less than 75 percent. New York is down their two starting corners and their replacements are on the smaller end in terms of verticality. In other news, the Eagles have tall receivers. EVERYBODY likes the Giants here, which means that they are going to fall flat on their face.
This week: 0-1
Last week: 7-5-2
Season: 40-32-5
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